Harvey or deGrom? (Version 6.0)

Yesterday, Terry Collins revealed his 2015 World Series Rotation. Matt Harvey will start game one, Jacob deGrom will start game two, and when the Fall Classic shifts back to New York, Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz will pitch game three and four respectively. The intriguing question (for the fifteenth time) coming from this report is why Collins decided to chose Harvey for the game one start. According to statistics from both the 2015 regular season and the postseason, Harvey had a  WHIP of 1.02, a ERA 2.71 in the regular season, and a postseason WHIP of 1.08, a ERA of 2.84 in two home games. Obviously, two postseason games are not enough to judge, but deGrom does slightly have the edge. de Grom’s  2015 regular season  WHIP was 0.98, with a ERA 2.54. In the   postseason, his WHIP was 1.00, and his ERA was 1.80 in three games.

While deGrom leads in all important categories, I understand why he wasn’t chosen as the starter.

Sure, both of them averaged one more run in ERA when pitching away during the regular season,  which means if deGrom had pitched in all of his games at home as Harvey did, chances are that his postseason stats would have been considerably better. And, deGrom pitched game five against Kershaw, in a do-or-die game,  which means he was under much more pressure than Harvey was pitching against Anderson in game three of the NLDS.
Unfortunately, this is one of those cases where postseason statistics don’t tell the whole picture. Harvey owns intangibles that deGrom just doesn’t have. He can block out the road crowd and thrive of the home fans. deGrom has a hard time bouncing back from tough innings, Harvey doesn’t. If game one was at Citi, then I would’ve started Jacob, but on Tuesday, the ball has to go to Matt Harvey.

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