Mets Playoff odds have increased…

Niko Goutakolis Baseball Prospectus just published their latest PECOTA standings update. As you can see below, and here, the Mets are projected to win 84 games this year, and lose 78. This puts them at six games above 500, which means that they will improve two games between now and the end of the season. This seems very reasonable for the Mets, the team that is heavily plagued by big injuries, uncertainties, and a suspension.

The one thing this team needs to drop is the whole “If you would have asked us if we would take first place in March, anyone would have signed up for that” speech. It makes sense, and, well, it’s valid, but it’s an excuse to play bad and not take stock in the team. A fellow Mets blogger, Shannon from MetsPolice.com listed the stereotypes preventing the Mets front office from improving the team.

Now, I have faith in the Mets front office, I believe that the taste of success that the Mets had in April will give them motivation. Maybe we can build from within, after all, with all of those injuries and stressful moments, we sit at the top of the NL East. Imagine what we can do at full strength….

Lets-go-Mets-2010

Here are the PECOTA standings from Baseball Prospectus:

National League East

Rnk Team
Win

Loss

Expected
Win Pct

Sim
Win

Sim
Loss

Div
Pct

WC
Pct
Sorted Descending
Playoff
Pct

Playoff
Pct (Adj)

WS Win
Pct

1 Day
Delta

7 Day
Delta
1
Washington
Nationals
30 27 .548 87.4 74.6 61.1% 10.6% 71.6% 66.6% 9.4% -3.7% -10.6%
2
New York
Mets
31 27 .514 84.3 77.7 33.6% 12.8% 46.4% 39.9% 3.5% 5.8% 1.6%
3
Miami
Marlins
24 33 .500 76.6 85.4 3.7% 2.3% 5.9% 4.7% 0.4% 1.1% 1.4%
4
Atlanta
Braves
27 29 .450 74.7 87.3 1.6% 1.1% 2.7% 2.1% 0.1% -1.4% -0.6%
5
Philadelphia
Phillies
22 36 .435 67.0 95.0 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

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